Sustainability Deep Dive: Brazil – Regen Ag, COP30, and Emissions Trading

In this Sustainability Deep Dive, we’re focusing on Brazil. 

Brazil is at the heart of the climate conversation as we head toward COP30 in Belém.

With insights from BCG’s Brazil team, we explore:

Why the “Cerrado biome” is as important as the Amazon and what are the actions and opportunities for Brazil ahead of COP30.

COP30 Action Agenda: From Vision to Collective Impact

As COP30 draws near, the COP30 Presidency has launched the Action Agenda, detailed in the Fourth Letter from the Presidency, as a “granary of solutions” to accelerate climate implementation. Structured around 30 Key Objectives across six thematic axes, it is anchored in the outcomes of the Global Stocktake and framed as a “Global Determined Contribution (GDC).” It calls for a “global mutirão” — a collective, inclusive effort to turn ambition into implementation. The Agenda is moving beyond negotiations to drive real-world delivery through multi-stakeholder Activation Groups, coalitions, curated solutions, and measurable results.

As part of the build-up to COP30, the official calendar of Thematic Days was also unveiled — each day aligns with the Action Agenda’s axes and focuses on equity, implementation, and urgency. This is not just another conference — it marks a turning point to shift the climate narrative from pledges to progress.

The Future of Agriculture is Regenerative: Why the Cerrado is at the Heart of this Revolution

Brazil’s Cerrado biome covers over 70% of the country’s agricultural land. By implementing regenerative agriculture, this vast area can produce more, preserve more, and profit more. Regen Ag. has the potential to restore up to 32 million hectares, generate over R$100 billion ($183 million USD) in value, and position Brazil as a global benchmark in sustainable farming — without clearing a single additional hectare. 

Resilience for the Future: A Viable Pathway to Regenerative Landscapes in the Cerrado, outlines the pathways to mobilize financing, provide technical support to farmers, and implement robust verification mechanisms to scale the transformation.

BCG Brazil’s Infographic Series: Data and Strategies

While the Cerrado highlights the potential of regenerative production, the road to COP30 underscores how this and other solutions can be integrated into national and global decarbonization strategies.

In this context, BCG Brazil launched a series of visual and analytical content titled “Countdown to COP30”, aimed at delivering practical insights to help companies and stakeholders explore the opportunities that COP30 — set to take place in Belém, Pará — will bring to the global agenda. Some of the featured content includes:

1. The Economic Potential of Net Zero for Brazil 

Brazil accounts for 1.7 gigatons of ‘carbon dioxide equivalent’ (GtCO₂e) in net emissions, placing Brazil as the sixth-highest emitter in the world. For context, a gigaton is a billion metric tons - roughly equivalent to twice the mass of all the people in the world. The biggest sources of carbon emissions in Brazil come from agriculture (36%), forests (29%), and energy (24%).

There is an opportunity as well as a cost on the path to net zero for Brazil. Careful planning could unlock US$3 trillion by engaging the private sector in forest regeneration, biofuels, carbon capture, and electric vehicles.  

2. Just Transition: Green Growth with Social Inclusion 

The transition to a Net Zero economy could create up to 30 million green jobs and add US$10.3 trillion to the global GDP by 2050. But, as the world transitions to a low-carbon economy, there are also risks of deepening inequality, with 5 million jobs at risk and less than 2% of climate finance currently reaching the most vulnerable countries. 

In Brazil, traditional communities, small-scale farmers, and low-skilled workers need access to finance, technology, and training. Ensuring a just transition will require local engagement, reskilling policies, digital inclusion, certification mechanisms, and support for small businesses.

3. COP30: A Transformative Moment 

This year, world leaders will convene in Belém, Brazil - the heart of the Amazon - with high expectations to deliver real impact.  Engagement must happen before (in agenda-setting), during (in decision-making), and after (in follow-up and accountability).

This will be the 30th “Conference of the Parties” (COP). These meetings are the decision-making mechanism for the international climate treaty - the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).

COPs go beyond negotiations between countries — they are global platforms for transformative action led by civil society, including Indigenous peoples, women, youth, scientists, farmers, and traditional communities. 

This year (and every five years), the countries that are parties to the treaty will deliver “nationally determined contributions” or NDCs. As the effects of climate change worsen, countries are under pressure to deliver stronger targets to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Other expectations for this COP are:

1. A pivot from negotiation to delivery - with a strong focus on finance, adaptation, and forest protection.

2. Scaling Climate Finance -  A centerpiece will be the “Baku to Belém Roadmap” to boost annual climate finance from $300 bn to $1.3 tn by 2035

3. Nature & Forest Protection - Brazil plans to launch the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a $125 bn blended-finance mechanism to reward forest conservation.

4. Broadening the Scope - Brazil’s presidency is pushing to include non-state actors (cities, states, companies) in the climate agenda.

4. Brazil’s New Carbon Market

Brazil has formalized its Emissions Trading System, requiring companies emitting more than 25,000 tons to offset their impact through the purchase of regulated carbon credits. Set to be fully operational by 2030, the system opens doors to international markets, such as Europe, and creates opportunities for revenue through surplus credits and decarbonization financing. For companies, it represents a tangible chance to align competitiveness and sustainability in the emerging low-carbon economy. 

Brazil’s progress is even more relevant as the world inches closer to a global carbon market under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Connecting regulated systems will unlock a massive pipeline of sustainable projects. Brazil’s new carbon trading scheme positions it well to attract investment, and revenues from nature-based solutions and removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).